25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

But a careful analysis of the record shows that the picture is more complex and, ultimately, far less daunting: An investor who invested a lump sum in the average stock at the market’s 1929 high would have been back to a break-even by late 1936—less than four-and-a-half years after the mid-1932 market low.

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (1)

Correct picture? A file photo of the New York Stock Exchange. Determining the length of a recovery is tough, given the many definitions of a bear market. But whatever the definition, typical recovery time is quite quick. Gino Domenico / Bloomberg

The numbers show that from a peak, on a closing basis, of 381.17 on 3 September 1929, the Dow needed until 23 November 1954, to return to its old high. But that’s in “nominal" terms, without adjusting for the effects of inflation or its opposite, deflation.

The Great Depression was a deflationary period. And because the Consumer Price Index in late 1936 was more than 18% lower than it was in the fall of 1929, stating market returns without accounting for deflation exaggerates the decline.

These payouts played a big role in the 1930s. When the Dow hit a low of 41.22 on 8 July 1932, for example, the dividend yield of the overall stock market was close to 14%, according to data compiled by Robert J. Shiller, the Yale economics professor.

So ignoring dividends, especially when yields were so rich, also exaggerates the losses of a typical equity investor.

Many researchers consider the overall market—defined as the combined value of all publicly traded stocks—as the best gauge of a typical investor’s experience.

The Dow is made up of just 30 stocks, which are weighted in the index according to their price rather than their relative market capitalization.

Perhaps the most celebrated illustration of the Dow’s failure to represent the overall market traces back to a 1939 decision to delete International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) from the Dow 30 list. IBM wasn’t restored to the index until 1979.

Norman Fosback, editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster newsletter, has estimated that the Dow would have been more than twice as high in 1979 had IBM stayed in the index continuously.

It’s unclear when the Dow would have returned to its 1929 pre-crash high had IBM not been deleted in 1939.

In response to a request, an analyst at the indexes division of Dow Jones said that it was unable to determine the answer.

But because IBM’s stock was one of the best performers during the 1940s, greatly outpacing the Dow itself, it’s certain that its inclusion would have markedly accelerated the index’s recovery.

So when did the overall stock market really make it back to its pre-crash peak? Just four years and five months after its mid-1932 low, according to data provided to Sunday Business by Ibbotson Associates Inc., a division of Morningstar Inc.

That seems remarkably fast, given that the stock market lost more than 80% of its value from its 1929 high to its mid-1932 low.

But the quick recovery of the 1930s is consistent with the typical experience after other bear markets in the US.

Determining the precise length of such recoveries is a problem, given the many definitions of a bear market. Whatever definition is used, however, the typical recovery time is quite quick.

In fact, according to a Hulbert Financial Digest study of down markets since 1900, the average recovery time is just over two years, when factors like inflation and dividends are taken into account.

The longest was the recovery from the December 1974 low; it took more than eight years for the market to return to its previous peak, which was reached in late 1972.

None of this, of course, guarantees that stocks will have a quick recovery from the market decline that began in October 2007. But it suggests that the historical record isn’t as bleak as it looks.

©2009/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Mark Hulbert is editor ofThe Hulbert Financial Digest, a service of MarketWatch.

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Published: 26 Apr 2009, 09:43 PM IST

25 years to bounce back from the 1929 crash? Try four-and-a-half (2024)

FAQs

How long did it take to recover from the 1929 stock crash? ›

Wall Street Crash of 1929

The crash lasted until 1932, resulting in the Great Depression, a time in which stocks lost nearly 90% of their value. The Dow didn't fully recover until November 1954.

Why did the stock market crash in 1929 Short answer? ›

What caused the Wall Street crash of 1929? The main cause of the Wall Street crash of 1929 was the long period of speculation that preceded it, during which millions of people invested their savings or borrowed money to buy stocks, pushing prices to unsustainable levels.

What was the result of the crash of 1929 on the US economy? ›

Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit. Firms – like Ford Motors – saw demand decline, so they slowed production and furloughed workers.

What happened after the crash of 1929? ›

Simply put, the stock market crash of 1929 caused the Great Depression because everyone lost money. Investors and businesses both put significant amounts of money into the market, and when it crashed, tremendous amounts of money were lost. Businesses closed and people lost their savings.

Could the crash of 1929 happen again? ›

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation also oversees bank operations and insures depositor's' money to prevent bank runs that became an iconic image in the 1930s. While a drop like 1929 could potentially happen again, it wouldn't have the same the consequences today as it did 90 years ago.

How long did it take to fully recover from the Great Depression? ›

While conditions began to improve by the mid-1930s, total recovery was not accomplished until the end of the decade.

Who profited from the 1929 crash? ›

Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

Who was blamed for the stock market crash of 1929? ›

Many people blamed the crash on commercial banks that were too eager to put deposits at risk on the stock market. In 1930, 1,352 banks held more than $853 million in deposits; in 1931, one year later, 2,294 banks failed with nearly $1.7 billion in deposits.

Could the stock market crash of 1929 have been prevented? ›

How could the Stock Market Crash of 1929 been prevented? Had the Federal Reserve and other governing bodies established a separation of banks and investment firms, the stock market would likely not have become saturated, especially with borrowed money.

Do you lose all your money if the stock market crashes? ›

Again, you technically don't lose any money in the stock market unless you sell your investments. If you simply hold your stocks until the market rebounds, your stocks should regain their value. The key is to ensure you're investing in strong stocks that have the ability to weather market turbulence.

Why is it called Black Tuesday? ›

Answer & Explanation FROM YOUR TEACHER: The term "Black Tuesday" alludes to October 29, 1929, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) saw a sharp decline. The Great Depression began on Black Tuesday and continued until the start of World War II. Tysm!

What were the best investments during the Great Depression? ›

The best performing investments during the Depression were government bonds (many corporations stopped paying interest on their bonds) and annuities.

What effects did the crash of 1929 have on people's lives? ›

The stock market crash crippled the American economy because not only had individual investors put their money into stocks, so did businesses. When the stock market crashed, businesses lost their money. Consumers also lost their money because many banks had invested their money without their permission or knowledge.

How long would it take for 1929 crash to recover? ›

It took the DOW 25 years to regain its 1929 highs in nominal terms. Including dividends, which reached a high of 14% at the depths of the crash (when the market was down almost 90%), it took about 10 years for 1929 DOW investors to get their money back.

Was 1929 crash worse than 2008? ›

In the Great Depression from 1929 to 1933, the price level fell by 22 percent and real GDP fell by 31 percent. In the 2008-2009 recession, the price level rose at a slow pace and real GDP fell by less than 4 percent.

How long does it take for the stock market to recover from a crash? ›

It typically takes five months to reach the “bottom” of a correction. However, once the market starts to turn, it can recover quickly. The average recovery time for a correction is just four months! That's why investors with truly diversified portfolios may consider staying investing for the long-term.

How long did it take the market to recover from Black Monday? ›

In just two trading sessions, the DJIA gained back 288 points, or 57 percent, of the total Black Monday downturn. Less than two years later, US stock markets surpassed their pre-crash highs.

How long did the 1929 recession last? ›

1929–1941. The longest and deepest downturn in the history of the United States and the modern industrial economy lasted more than a decade, beginning in 1929 and ending during World War II in 1941.

Did anyone benefit from the 1929 stock market crash? ›

Several individuals who bet against or “shorted” the market became rich or richer. Percy Rockefeller, William Danforth, and Joseph P. Kennedy made millions shorting stocks at this time. They saw opportunity in what most saw as misfortune.

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